Journal

Notes with a decision tag, linked to a name and a zone. Written for a future self; quoted back by the letter when what a note watches happens.

New note

Hold

Buy

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No notes yet.The journal is empty. Three moments are worth a note: before a purchase, when something changes, and after a sale.Notes surface on the stock page and are quoted back in the letter when what they watch happens.

Before a purchaseThe key idea, the risks, and what would change your mind.

When something changesWhat happened, whether the thesis holds, what you will watch next.

After a saleWhy, what you got right, what you would do differently.

Re-read the cable thesis if it enters the zoneHold

CMCSAComcastzone opens at $30.883 Aug

Broadband subscriber losses are the number. If the zone opens I want to re-read the last two calls before anything else, because the thesis is cash flow durability, not growth.

Watching: enters the zone. It happened on 26 Aug, quoted in the letter.

Branded checkout share is the whole thesisBuy

PYPLPayPalzone opens at $94.4018 Aug

Bought inside the zone. Two quarters of sub-four-per-cent branded volume growth would take the DCF near $92 and the verdict to fairly valued; that is my exit condition.

Watching: branded share disclosure in the next 10-K. Not yet.

Not at this price; the zone is the disciplinePass

NVDANvidiazone opens at $8102 Sep

The insider cluster is real and the growth is real. The price implies 22% growth for a decade; the zone opens at $810 and I will wait for it or not own it.

Turnaround risk deserves the stricter marginNote

NKENikezone opens at $36.3328 Aug

Inventory days is the number on Friday. A custom 30% margin because the base case leans on a margin recovery that has not started.

New note4 of 20

Title

Decision

NoteBuySellHoldPass

CompanyZone

Note

Three moments worth a note

Before a purchaseThe key idea, the risks, and what would change your mind.

When something changesWhat happened, whether the thesis holds, what you will watch next.

After a saleWhy, what you got right, what you would do differently.

Before a purchaseThe key idea, the risks, and what would change your mind.

When something changesWhat happened, whether the thesis holds, what you will watch next.

After a saleWhy, what you got right, what you would do differently.

Re-read the cable thesis if it enters the zoneHold

CMCSAComcastzone opens at $30.883 Aug

Broadband subscriber losses are the number. If the zone opens I want to re-read the last two calls before anything else, because the thesis is cash flow durability, not growth.

Watching: enters the zone. It happened on 26 Aug, quoted in the letter.

Branded checkout share is the whole thesisBuy

PYPLPayPalzone opens at $94.4018 Aug

Bought inside the zone. Two quarters of sub-four-per-cent branded volume growth would take the DCF near $92 and the verdict to fairly valued; that is my exit condition.

Watching: branded share disclosure in the next 10-K. Not yet.

Not at this price; the zone is the disciplinePass

NVDANvidiazone opens at $8102 Sep

The insider cluster is real and the growth is real. The price implies 22% growth for a decade; the zone opens at $810 and I will wait for it or not own it.

Turnaround risk deserves the stricter marginNote

NKENikezone opens at $36.3328 Aug

Inventory days is the number on Friday. A custom 30% margin because the base case leans on a margin recovery that has not started.

New note4 of unlimited

Title

Decision

NoteBuySellHoldPass

CompanyZone

Note

Three moments worth a note

Before a purchaseThe key idea, the risks, and what would change your mind.

When something changesWhat happened, whether the thesis holds, what you will watch next.

After a saleWhy, what you got right, what you would do differently.

Design preview: illustrative figures throughout, invented and tied to no live run and no real company’s accounts. Analysis is not advice and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Insider, fund and congressional disclosures are shown with the lag between transaction and filing, because that lag is part of what a row means. Valuations are model output under stated conventions, reproducible only from a run’s own recorded inputs, version and vintage.